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Impact of DNC Scoring on 2020 Frostbite Summay
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My first attachment is Jason’s corrected spreadsheet. The only change is that the last column of the rankings was incorrect, so I fixed it.
The second attachment is redoing the results as if the five boats that only came one or two days never existed. That leaves 9 boats who came pretty steadily (5 of those did RC).
To Hank’s point, the five "tourists" that showed up once or twice had an impact on the ranking when we keep the Wednesday DNC system. Specifically, Allegiant had one more DNC than Cantata but otherwise had better results than Cantata. If the five tourists are taken into account that DNC is very costly, and Allegiant loses one place and is now behind Cantata. The rest is the same.
But I am still not convinced that the system we have now is “fairer”. The third attachment is the Frostbite results according to the current system. Yes, Allegiant regains the spot vs Cantata but Avalon benefits greatly because so few boats showed up in the fist race that she is not penalized much for the no show. Had the “tourists” not existed she would have ended up behind Bay Retriever and Liberty Prevails. The same would have been true if we had been using the Wednesday Series system. So the current system corrected a non-existing problem and favored one boat for no particular reason.
Finally, and this is where I really dislike the current system: it is not right to keep it if we use redress for RC by averaging races sailed. The last attachment shows what I was talking about at the meeting. In 2019, Revolution RC’d the fifth race when only two boats finished the race. The redress was 4.2, DNC was 3. Revolution should have stayed home.
I vote we use the Wednesday system for the Frostbites

I have had a work emergency today. Will look at all this and respond tomorrow..

Thanks



On Wednesday, January 27, 2021 Racing Discussions <racing_discussions@hhsa.org> wrote:
Posted by: Lil Chalkley on 1/27/2021 at 4:15 PM
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Jason kindly pointed out two errors in my scoring the frostbites using the Wednesday DNC rules.  As a result, the impact of using the Wed DNC rule is not nearly as significant as I originally showed.  Here's the revised analysis:

4 boats gained 1 place
1 boat lost 2 places
3 boats lost 1 place

However, during the frostbite series, we did have one boat racing once, two boats racing twice, and one boat racing 3 times, in the ten races.   Four boats had 32 of the 52 total DNCs for the series.   A large number of DNCs should be expected in a series at the end of the season when weather conditions are out of many comfort zones and skippers are getting their boats winterized or hauled out.  My point is that the current DNC scoring rules deemphasize DNC scores while still penalizing racers for not coming out.  I vote that we don't change them.

Cheers,
Hank

Jason kindly pointed out two errors in my scoring the frostbites using the Wednesday DNC rules.  As a result, the impact of using the Wed DNC rule is not nearly as significant as I originally showed.  Here's the revised analysis:

4 boats gained 1 place
1 boat lost 2 places
3 boats lost 1 place

However, during the frostbite series, we did have one boat racing once, two boats racing twice, and one boat racing 3 times, in the ten races.   Four boats had 32 of the 52 total DNCs for the series.   A large number of DNCs should be expected in a series at the end of the season when weather conditions are out of many comfort zones and skippers are getting their boats winterized or hauled out.  My point is that the current DNC scoring rules deemphasize DNC scores while still penalizing racers for not coming out.  I vote that we don't change them.

Cheers,
Hank

Hank et al (stand by long note)--

Before anyone forms a final opinion, I was looking at the head-to-head results and they didn't make sense... Dug a bit and I found an error in the "Wed DNC" version; it looks like the "drop two lowest" got missed for a few of the boats. Changes the series outcome. See attached.

To pick on Jubilee/Keith a minute (forgive me Keith :) ) I tried an experiment. Under "Weds Rules", Keith could miss one day of racing and still have finished first in the series, but if he missed 2 days he would have dropped to at least 4th (I arbitrarily picked the 1st and last days and assumed everyone finished in the same orderfor my experiment). That kinda makes sense... a great boat can survive one "bad day" but not two... which makes it competitive for the rest of us... LOL!

I think given the mission of HHSA, using the rule that emphasized "showing up" to make everyone more competitive is the better choice (and it also means skippers that are out there consistently are insentivized to encourage more/new boats to show up, even for just one race). I would further submit that that the boat that shows up for only one or two days isn't expecting to do well in the series, so it shouldn't matter to them.

Jason

I respectfully think that's the wrong answer.  One or two boats that come out for one or two races will skew the results over a twelve race series.  Stick to the original DNC scoring.

Cheers,
Hank

I think that this actually makes the argument for changing the rule to go to the Wednesday System. The boat that gained places the most is Liberty Prevails. Why? because she came out and raced the most. This is what we should be encouraging.
Quoted Text

HHSA Racers,
I ran the Frostbite Summary using the DNC scoring as in the Wednesday series.  The main impact was caused by which races were thrown out.  The effect was that for several boats the DNC score was higher than that of the highest race score(s) for that boat.  This result had the effect of lowering the boat's series total.
The first four boats were unchanged.  The last five boats were unchanged.  One boat gained 3 places, 2 boats gained one place, 1 boat lost 2 places, and 2 boats lost 1 place.
Enclosed are the two frostbite series summaries.
BTW, if Revolution had taken a DNC instead of a race committee score, she would have dropped 1 place in the official scoring and 3 places using the Wed DNC scoring.
Using the Wed scoring for the Frostbites makes the DNC score the driving force in the series scores.  A boat that comes out for only one or two races really drives up the DNC scores for the rest of the fleet.  Don't change the rule!
Cheers,Hank

My bad concerning the impact of using the Wed DNC scoring on Revolution's score on the last Frostbite.  I was looking at 2020.  Michel was referring to the 2019 race.  Sorry about that.

Cheers,
Hank

My bad concerning the impact of using the Wed DNC scoring on Revolution's score on the last Frostbite.  I was looking at 2020.  Michel was referring to the 2019 race.  Sorry about that.

Cheers,
Hank

HHSA Racers,

I ran the Frostbite Summary using the DNC scoring as in the Wednesday series.  The main impact was caused by which races were thrown out.  The effect was that for several boats the DNC score was higher than that of the highest race score(s) for that boat.  This result had the effect of lowering the boat's series total.

The first four boats were unchanged.  The last five boats were unchanged.  One boat gained 3 places, 2 boats gained one place, 1 boat lost 2 places, and 2 boats lost 1 place.

Enclosed are the two frostbite series summaries.

BTW, if Revolution had taken a DNC instead of a race committee score, she would have dropped 1 place in the official scoring and 3 places using the Wed DNC scoring.

Using the Wed scoring for the Frostbites makes the DNC score the driving force in the series scores.  A boat that comes out for only one or two races really drives up the DNC scores for the rest of the fleet.  Don't change the rule!

Cheers,
Hank
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